Obama Can’t Win
According to a recent Associated Press poll, 72 percent of Americans believe President Obama will rescue The US economy. They are wrong. The crises that are enveloping this country will overwhelm the next administration.
President-elect Barack Obama has assured us that “Real Change is Coming”. He’s absolutely right about that. But the changes coming to America wont originate in the Oval Office, or from the establishment shills Obama has appointed to his administration.
The financial crisis that began last summer is not a “recession”, or an economic downturn. This is the end of American economic hegemony. At best we will see a controlled erosion of the dollar and our purchasing power abroad. At worst the Chinese will stop buying US Treasuries, or the nations of the Middle East will begin accepting other currencies for oil purchases.
The Central Bank of China and Sovereign Wealth Funds finance our economy, our government, and our wars. In addition to foreign credit, we are dependent on imported oil and manufactured goods to maintain our standard of living. We don’t even make computer keyboards in this country anymore, let alone the cars, computers, and other products that drive our consumer culture.
Here is a hard truth that the American People are about to learn: The Chinese don’t have to work for a dollar an hour making our cell phones and flat screen TVs, and the Islamic Nations don’t have to pump our oil. When they stop we are going to get poorer, and nothing President Obama says or does can change that.
On the campaign trail Obama talked tough on relations with China, and promised a new era in Sino-American relations. “China is a competitor, but they don’t have to be an enemy as long as we understand that they are going to be negotiating aggressively for their advantage… That means enforcing our trade agreements. It means that, if they’re manipulating their currency, that we take them to the mat on this issue.”
But he admitted that, “it’s pretty hard to have a tough negotiation when the Chinese are our bankers”.
And speaking of bankers, Obama has already named Timothy Geithner, President of the New York Fed, as his Treasury Secretary. Lawrence Summers, former head of the World bank and Treasury Secretary under Clinton, will lead the National Economic Council. As if there weren’t enough talking heads, retired Fed Chairman Paul Volcker will head another team of advisors providing “fresh thinking”.
No fresh thinking will save the US economy. We can choose between massive defaults on derivatives contracts, or massive debt and inflation as the government sells Treasuries to cover the losses. The Bush administration has chosen the latter, with record bailouts for banks, and record deficits.
President Obama will not change that policy. Instead he has proposed a $850 billion stimulus package on top of the trillion dollar bailouts already budgeted. And rather than hold the investment bankers and derivatives dealers accountable, he has made them his brain trust.
There will be no change in America’s foreign policy during President Obama’s administration either. He announced his nominees for Secretaries of State and Defense, while proclaiming a “new dawn” for America’s international relations. Hillary Clinton will become Secretary of State, and Robert Gates will be retained as Defense Secretary, after serving the past two years under President Bush.
They will both be very busy since we are embroiled in two wars, and fresh out of friends. The Islamic World loathes America because of our despicable invasion of Iraq. Most of them also believe 9/11 was an inside job, and they oppose the war in Afghanistan that we justified after the September 11th attacks.
Last week the Iraqi government approved the “Status of Forces Agreement” that calls for the withdrawal of of all U.S. Troops by January 1st, 2012. Of course Al Sadr and the Mahdi Army are not signatory to the pact, and he will determine when fighting starts anew. The Mahdi Army may allow us to end the war without renewed violence, but only because they take their marching orders from Iran.
In defiance of the United States and U.N. Sanctions, Iran is developing nuclear weapons. In three years they will have fielded their first nuclear armed missiles, and the the U.S. will be out of the Middle East. Iran has benefited from our misadventure in Iraq, and they will fill the power vacuum left when we withdraw.
We would do well to remember the most recent example of a collapsing Empire at war. When the Soviet Union disintegrated in the late 1980s, the Red Army could not even afford to abandon their bases. The Government of West Germany had to pay the bankrupt Russians to withdraw their army from Eastern Europe.
The Soviets were also embroiled in Afghanistan when their empire collapsed. After they gave up their war against the mujahideen, they simply drove home. When we tire of our endless war in Afghanistan and attempt to extricate our troops, we will be dependent on the goodwill of neighboring countries like Pakistan.
Our position in the Middle East is precarious, and will inevitably deteriorate over the next four years. At best we will withdraw from Iraq ignominiously, dependent on foreign creditors to finance our departure. At worst the Shias in Iraq will ally with their brethren in Iran and recreate the Persian Empire, with nuclear weapons.
President Obama must lead us through a national bankruptcy while managing two wars.
Yet he cannot make America prosperous in four years, it will take a generation to rebuild our economy. He cannot prevent Iran from fielding nuclear weapons and emerging as a dangerous enemy. And he cannot occupy the Middle East indefinitely to control the world’s oil supplies.
We have pinned our hopes for an American revival on President Barack Obama. On the one hand it’s good to see Americans awaken from their lethargy. If for no other reason than people are scared after the economic shockwaves roiled our economy this summer. On the other hand I doubt we are prepared for the real change that is coming.
We are bankrupt, and soon our creditors will stop lending us money. We have lost the War in Iraq, and we will lose our war in Afghanistan as well. In short, America is not number one anymore.
The success of Obama’s presidency will be determined by his ability to get that through our heads.
For the record, I voted for the only candidate who made re-opening the 9/11 investigations a platform of their campaign. Cynthia McKinney was the Green Party candidate for President, and if nothing else, she was honest. Do I think she would be up for leading America through the next four years? I doubt it.
And I don’t have any confidence in President Obama either. It’s not that I think he’s a bad man. It’s just that he can’t win.
…